Laying Odds on Favourites Final Review
[Rating3.5]
Hi Blogger’s
I have been reviewing this system for 84 days and it has made only 5.31 points to Level Stakes and 8.05 points to 5% Bank Liability so why am I passing it? If you go to the website it is performing exactly as it says it would. Let’s take a look at what the website says this is from the Blog Section:
“The “magic” of the Laying Odds on Favourites system really starts to happen once the bank begins to compound.”
“Unfortunately, this takes time, and it will be at least 3 or 4 more months before we start to notice a significant difference”
So let us look at my figures at the 56 day stage of the review:
Level Stakes = 1049.50 (1000 Starting Bank) = + 0.99 points
5% Bank Liability = 1033.52 (1000 Starting Bank) = + 0.67 points
Well that’s pretty unimpressive stuff now let us see the final figures Day 84:
Level Stakes = 1265.50 (1000 Starting Bank) = + 5.31 points
5% Bank Liability = 1402.64 (1000 Starting Bank) = + 8.05 points
Now that is better and that was after 12 weeks so we were approaching the 3 months stage when as per the comment on LOF site we should start to see a significant difference. Moving forwards to another comment posted on the site:
“Slow though it is, LOF is incredibly low risk, and we are making gradual profits”.
So one way to judge low risk would be to see what strike rate it has got, longest losing runs, how many points lost to counter the longest winning run and points gained.
Selections 60/ 31 Winning Lays = 51.68% Strike Rate
Longest Losing Run 3 (3 times) points lost = 2.06, 2.97 and 2.79.
Longest Winning Run 4 (2 times) points won = 3.80 (twice)
The points above are to Level Stakes but once again illustrates that the comments on the website are correct, losing runs are small, winning runs are small because you are dealing with Laying odds on favourites it is to be expected, the average odds of All Selections was 1.84, for Losing Lays it was 1.83 and for Winning Lays it was 1.84. The overall Strike rate is slightly down at 51.68% from the average of 53%, the number of selections per month is also down at 20 per month when the norm is 25 to 30.
This service or system runs on a Bot you are not given the system rules they are built into the LOF Bot, itself. A couple of times in the first month I experienced problems with the LOF Bot but since then everything has been running fine. Now cost wise this is not cheap if you subscribe on a repeat monthly it will cost you 67 pounds per month, the cheapest way is to take out a yearly subscription the cost 497 pounds working to 41.40 pounds per month.
LOF is most certainly not for everyone it really is a long term project at least to 9 to 12 months, the recommendation of the author/operator is you have a bank risk of whatever amount you can afford and forget about it for 12 months. To my mind to make it profitable you would need to have a bank of at least 1000 pounds. Another thing a buyer of LOF would require is an abundance of patience and discipline; I had a run of 10 days without a selection, also you will get losing days, weeks etc even a month but I agree with Matt that this will be profitable long term.
In Summary
I have only given LOF a rating of 3 and a half stars because it is fairly expensive, does require a lot of patience and discipline and has a limited appeal. I have passed it because it makes a profit and does actually do what it says on the tin. If you are a serious backer and have a good size bank and you are looking for a long term venture then this could be for you. Just to add that to really have seen the true nature of LOF we would have had to run a review for 9 to 12 months which would have been impractical, if I had of put LOF into neutral and started a fresh in a couple of months it is near certain it would perform in exactly the manner it did here, it clearly takes time for the compounding to work.
Regards
Sgt Dave
Rating: 
Filed under Passed and Recommended by on Aug 8th, 2010. 
All By The Book Final Review – Click Here
5 Stars and Highly Recommended!
Hi Bloggers
I have been testing this method since the 14th April and I can certainly say that it was a complete new approach for me, but anyway I took the bull by the horns and gave it a shot and the results have been very impressive to say the least. Over the 84 days working to 105% and below the method has made a profit of 1623.67 points with a total maximum risk of 1440.41 points, that is a very high plus 112.72% Return on Maximum Risk.
Before any sharp eyed people notice yes that is an additional 40 points on the final total we had on Day 84 this was due to a couple of odd mistakes as regards Non Runners in May for which I apologize for, the actual review figures will be amended shortly.
Anyway I have given a breakdown of the figures for working up to 105 below:
|
|
Up to 105 |
Results |
|
|
|
|
|
Days |
Winning Days |
Strike Rate |
|
84 |
56 |
66.66% |
|
Races |
Winning Races |
Strike Rate |
|
528 |
205 |
38.83% |
|
Max Risk |
Profit |
Return on Max Risk |
|
1440.41 |
1623.67 |
Plus 112.72% |
|
Longest Losing Run(Days) |
3 Days (Twice) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Days) |
6 Days (Twice) |
|
Longest Losing Run (Races) |
13 (Once) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Races) |
5 (Twice) |
|
Maximum Races in a Day |
15 (Once) |
|
Maximum Loss in a Day |
26.41 points |
|
Maximum Win in a Day |
117.31 points |
Pretty impressive stuff 2 days out of 3 were winning ones, our maximum loss on any given Day was only 26.41 points yet our maximum return was 117.31 points. Now it must be said that using the 105 criteria things can become hectic on some days, but the average is only around 6 races per day and once you get used to the method it can be operated quickly and easily. Now I can appreciate it might be difficult for those working during the week so, how did ABTB fair just on the weekends? lets have a look:
|
|
Weekends |
|
|
|
Up to 105 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Days |
Winning Days |
Strike Rate |
|
24 |
18 |
75.00% |
|
Races |
Winning Races |
Strike Rate |
|
147 |
62 |
42.09% |
|
Max Risk |
Profit |
Return on Max Risk |
|
344.28 |
459.2 |
Plus 133.4% |
|
Longest Losing Run(Days) |
2 Days (Twice) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Days) |
6 Days (Twice) |
|
Longest Losing Run (Races) |
9 (Once) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Races) |
5 (Once) |
|
Maximum Races in a Day |
15 (Once) |
|
Maximum Loss in a Day |
15.04 points |
|
Maximum Win in a Day |
59.59 points |
So the figures look even better with ABTB making an average of over 19 points per day, a better strike rate all round and a higher percentage return. So you folks who can only use the method at weekends will certainly not lose out. Now I would have Passed and Recommended ABTB just on the above performance, but things are about to get even better a lot of you blogger’s have been asking which is the best strategy, working to 105% book or 103% book, here is your answer!
|
|
103 and Below |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Days |
Winning Days |
Strike Rate |
|
79 |
47 |
59.52% |
|
Races |
Winning Races |
Strike Rate |
|
260 |
110 |
42.30% |
|
Max Risk |
Profit |
Return on Max Risk |
|
385.4 |
1049.12 |
Plus 272.21% |
|
Longest Losing Run(Days) |
3 Days (Four) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Days) |
7 Days (Once) |
|
Longest Losing Run (Races) |
9 (Once) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Races) |
5 (Once) |
|
Maximum Races in a Day |
10 (Once) |
|
Maximum Loss in a Day |
13.58 points |
|
Maximum Win in a Day |
90.18 points |
So you are probably thinking is Sgt Dave crazy, not yet, okay we have lost 574.55 points profit from working to 105 but we have now lost over 1053.66 points from our Maximum Risk look at the Return Percentage that is awesome. It also makes the ABTB
Easier to manage, you only get an average of 3 to 4 qualifying races a day. Once you get up and running it will not take long to place your bets and less money management because you are dealing with less races.
The most I ever had on one day was 10 races the next was 8. If you were operating a Lay system you normally have to start with a Bank of 100 points well to Betfair minimum stake of 2 pounds so you would need a Betting Bank of 200 pounds. For that kind of money you could use 10 pence per point and start using ABTB. So even for such modest stakes you would have made 104.91 pounds in 12 weeks, and by compounding you can gradually increase the value of your point.
Finally for those folks who can only operate the method at weekends what would your results be for 103% and below:
|
|
Weekends |
|
|
|
103 and Below |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Days |
Winning Days |
Strike Rate |
|
24 |
17 |
70.92% |
|
Races |
Winning Races |
Strike Rate |
|
91 |
41 |
45.05% |
|
Max Risk |
Profit |
Return on Max Risk |
|
136.92 |
275.5 |
Plus 201.21% |
|
Longest Losing Run(Days) |
2 Days (Three) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Days) |
5 Days (Twice) |
|
Longest Losing Run (Races) |
5 (Once) |
|
Longest Winning Run (Races) |
4 (Once) |
|
Maximum Races in a Day |
10 (Once) |
|
Maximum Loss in a Day |
4.98 points |
|
Maximum Win in a Day |
49.17points |
Once again if you have only time available at weekends you are still going to make a good profit.
So lets look at the disadvantages:
The bookmakers are going to ban you because you are winning, well this has been discussed many times on the blog but just to condense what was said:
- Do not go crazy with your staking if you have sufficient capital 100 pounds per race is enough.
- Round off your bets having strange odd amounts: i.e. 27.87 is a dead give away you are using a system round it off to 28.
- Spread your bets evenly and try not to have multiples with the same bookmaker.
- If a bookmaker account is making too much profit try to create a sure bet on betfair by laying low and backing high on the bookies account with the view to the back bet losing. You should do this with selections in any market where the price is ideally below 4.0 or 3/1 and we are aiming for the back bet in the bookies to lose so that the lay bet in betfair is successful. This way we can cash out our winnings in betfair and our bookies company is left feeling happy that your account is a losing one. This will not always be simple you could go on a fantastic run and end up tripling or even quadrupling your bookies account before you lose the bet. Try to research which bets are most likely to lose. Competitive large field horse races are ideal. As long as you look like a true gambler and always end up losing the bet which you will the bookmaker will love your custom…
Even if you do end up, after taking plenty of the bookmakers cash getting banned or a restricted account this method will give you ideas that can help you make money. Unfortunately I cannot disclose any details, but if you look at some of the comments in my ABTB review some blogger’s are using variations of the method already to make more profit.
Other comments “I don’t have time” Well as already has been proved it works just as well on Weekends as it does any other time, using 103% or below should reduce the time needed by around 50% as over half the selections have been removed and also gives better value. In betting if you want to succeed you have to put the time in, it’s no different to any other business.
It requires a lot of capital well yes if you want to stake 1 pound per point, but as I said earlier you could start doing 103% or less with around 200 pounds which is the minimal for most lay and back systems etc and you are going to make more profit using ABTB with minimal risk. Just start off slowly use compounding and you will be able to get your stakes to a reasonable level.
Yes like every other method or system you will have losing days but your risk is minimal, which is one of the good points with the method. An excellent return on risk is another and the fact that the method is unique can also be added to the list.
In conclusion it has been a really exciting product to review and I give it the maximum five stars due to its outstanding and regular profit making abilities, as I have said before no system or method is 100% perfect yes you have to put some work in and do some money management but this is a small price to pay for the profits. My only problem now is where I can find another product like this to review.
[To Purchase All By The Book Click Here]
Regards
Sgt Dave
Filed under Betting System Reviews, Passed and Recommended by on Jul 18th, 2010.
One Good Bet Review Summary
Rating: 
Hi Bloggers
Rather than dress up this review summary, let’s just say this has to be one of the all
time flops in my time reviewing systems over the last two years.
53 days produced just 19 bets of which NONE were winning doubles and only eight
involved place wins. However as most of these place doubles included unplaced runners,
the returns were often less than the stake!
The system is far too woolly and open to subjectivity. For example the ebook gives
various Racing Post data to analyse to arrive at the selections but finishes by saying:
“The final decision has to have a certain amount of personal judgement factored into it”
So, basically if you are not sure if your selections are the best available just go with your
gut instinct! I certainly don’t consider paying £95 to represent good value just to end
up having to use my own judgement!!
Another interesting development is that Sportsworld Publishing have pulled the sales
page so even if you are foolish enough to want to invest in the system, you can’t do so
now anyway.
(I also noticed Lay It Safe has been pulled by Sportsworld as well. Must be the power of
Betting System Truths in exposing these nonsense services!)
As one of our readers commented on this review earlier, Maybe the title “One Good Bet”
means one good bet in the Flat season!! Unfortunately, after two months – almost half
way through the season – we are still waiting for it to happen.
Without hesitation, I recommend One Good Bet is FAILED and JAILED
indefinitely.
52 days / 19 bets with cumulative P/L - 12.47 points
[Click Here To See That One Good Bet Has Been Removed From Sportsworld Publishing!]
Cheers
Sgt Jon
Rating:
Filed under Passed and Recommended by on Jul 2nd, 2010.
Favourite’s Phenomenon Final Review
Rating: – Click to see the FP System!
Hi Bloggers
I have been trying out Favourite’s Phenomenon since March 8th and overall I have been pretty impressed, as per the website this is not a get rich now method but an investment. During the trial I have also had the chance to try out the FP Bot and it proved to be very reliable. I think only on one occasion did it let me down, I just simply reinstalled and was back up and running. Out of the 84 days of the review there was 21 days when there was no betting due mainly to the Maximum Potential Loss limits being exceeded or races over lapping. So out of the remaining 63 days only on two days did any of the Levels fail to get the winner the break down of the different Levels is as follows:
Level 1: 62 Days/59 Days won = 95.23% Strike Rate
Level 2: 47 Days /46 Days won = 98.04% Strike Rate
Level 3: 44 Days/ 43 Days won = 97.75% Strike Rate
Of course you could say you are doing stop at winner (SAW) but the winner came in an average of 2.57 of the qualifying races, so most of the time you had an early finish but you cannot not have a fraction of a race so it is probably best to say either the second or third qualifying race would produce the goods. There have been some comments posted on the blog about having to bet 70 points or even 121 points just to make a one point profit with FP if you follow the manual, program the FP Bot correctly or use the manual calculators provided properly its just not going to happen! Just to back it up the point’s outlay and returns are shown below for each Level:
Level 1: 122.6 points outlay, Profit 41.79 points = ROI 34.13%
Average points outlay per day = 1.98
Level 2: 102 points outlay, Profit 35.94 points = ROI 35.12%
Average points outlay per day = 2.12
Level 3: 130.66 points’ outlay, Profit 19.54 points = ROI 14.95%
Average points outlay per day = 2.97
It can be clearly seen that the outlay especially on Levels 1 and 2 is not that high to obtain 1 point profit, it must be said that the method has safeguards built in to protect the stakes from getting out of control, the FP Bot has them built in and you can adjust them to suit your comfort zone. I personally would use Level 1 as you get more action and losses are a lot lower but as a compromise Level 2 is good as well, the author of the system use Level 3 but I think for most of us the first 2 levels would be sufficient and would provide a steady income. Just to add all profits are shown at Betfair prices and commission has been accounted for in the calculations, although in my review I showed both ISP and BF the author recommends the latter and there was slight advantage during the trial.
So downsides the FP Bot costs 35 pounds a month, but if you have time in the afternoon the system comes with manual calculators which I have used as well. If doing the manual way you need to place your bets close to the off, around 10 seconds or so, I actually set the FP Bot to place bets 5 seconds before the start time. Once again there will
be variations in results on occasions, the results on the website are to Level 3 and depending of course when you do your calculations and place your bets. Another minor issue is that it is so consistent it is a shock when there is a losing day, you tend to get complacent.
So in conclusion based on what has happened over the 12 week review period I would recommend this system and award it four stars, as I have already said it might not suit some people but if you want to earn a steady profit with not much hassle then this could be for you. I personally prefer Levels 1 and 2 if you want to keep the stakes on the lower side, but once again that is up to the individual. So if you do purchase paper trade first read the manual especially for the FP Bot make sure your settings are correct.
Rating:
Matt has gave Betting System Truths readers a voucher worth £25 so that new members that join from Betting System Truths will get the advanced staking plan for free!
The voucher is worth £25 and must be used after checkout when offered the “Advanced Staking Plan” This is no gimmick Matt sells this every day for £25…
Go to: http://irec.ommend.com/favouritesphenomenon/ and add this beauty of a system to your portfolio! We 100% back this product and think it should be in your armoury…
Regards
Sgt Dave
Filed under Betting System Reviews, Passed and Recommended by on Jun 7th, 2010.
Lay The Ratings
[Click Here To See Lay The Ratings...]
Rating: 
This is my final review of Lay The Ratings.
I want to start by saying that I have Passed Lay The Ratings and It becomes 1 in only 3 systems/services to make the grade at the moment. As you know we regularly update our categories so that there is never stale information on the blog.
Our trial started on the 24th January this year and has now ended on the 24th April which means out test lasted 90 whole betting days.
We received 430 selections by email and from those we had 355 winning selections. So the strike rate was 82.56% overall for the trial.
The average price that we layed at in the trial was 6.59 BFSP (Betfair SP) based on 430 selections. This in my opinion comes under the category of a safe laying formula.
The Return on Investment when calculated to your total outlay is not actually that bad, but I am not doing cartwheels at 11% . Do not let this obscure the final outcome though as this does not tell the full story. Although the ROI is 11% for total outlay this is just a figure touted in comparison to how much outlay you have had over the 3 months and I would have to say that this figure on this occasion is not that important.
The True ROI is what sort of bank size would have been needed to Truly make the decent money and I can say with a bank of £100 you would be now sitting on £143.56 this is a True Return on initial investment of 43.56%, do this 4 times a year to total 12 months and you are not doing to badly at all. The average punter that lays uses between a 500 – 1000 starting capital in my experience and the money you can make is detailed below for the various starting capitals.
£100 = £143.56
£300 = £430.68
£500 = £717.80
£1000 = £1,435.60
£2000 = £2,871.20
£5000 = £7,178
£10000 = £14,356
The author has asked if he can keep proofing his selections to me for the foreseeable future as it helps him to keep good track on his results and in doing so I will continue to keep a close eye on Lay the Ratings and further analysis will of course follow as it does with all passed systems/services.
Lay The Ratings gets the Big Thumbs up and I recommend it to blog readers
[Click Here To See Lay The Ratings...]
Rating:
Filed under Passed and Recommended by on Apr 24th, 2010.
BETFAIR MIRACLE – FINAL REVIEW
Hi Bloggers
Well before I start it is unlikely that I would ever give 5 stars to any system or service as far as I am concerned there is no such thing as a perfect system or service this is my own personal opinion and I would be happy if one day I was proved to be wrong but somehow I doubt it. But I believe there is some very good systems or services but you just have to really search for it and I believe this is one of them.
How do I rate Betfair Miracle simply put four stars out of five, why because it delivers what it says on the tin and that is why I recommend it. Will it make you a instant fortune No, will it make you steady profits without giving you high blood Yes, is it short term No , is it long term Yes. Now the regular blogger’s should know me by now I will obviously be backing this up with some facts and figures, also I want to say that the author provided good customer service and only one e-mail went a stray during the 90 day trial this was due to a main computer problem. Not that you actually need the e-mail but it is provided free for the 21 days once you buy the system along with spreadsheets.
Right on to the results for the whole of the trial which remember does not include Sunday betting for both Main and Bonus Selections we had the following: (Note all profits quoted are to 1 point level stakes and Betfair commission of 5% is deducted)
Selections 63, Winning Lays 58 = Strike Rate 92.06 %, Profit 29.17 points,
Return on Investment 46.30%, Average Price of Losing Lay (BFSP) 6.24
So was this a flash in the pan, lets look at the results from June 7th 2007 to the day before the review started December 28th 2009, now although past results cannot guarantee the future results at least we can see if there is consistency:
Selections 652, Winning Lays 594 = Strike Rate 91.07%, Profit 301.41 points,
Return on Investment 46.38%, Average Price of Losing Lay (BFSP) 5.51
As you can see there no really dramatic differences except for the average losing lay price is abit higher this to me indicates a stable system, the longest losing run since June 2007 has been 3 and this has happened twice so far, with 2 consecutive losers eight times. As for winning runs it has 9 with over 20 consecutive winning lays including a 59, 41 and a 40. During the review the longest losing run was 1 and the longest winning run 26.
Actually there is a several occasions when the Bonus selection is the same as the Main Selection and we could class these as Bankers they have the best strike rate and the best ROI and actually puts the normal Bonus only selections in its place as the worse performer. For this one I have enclosed the results from June 2007 to the end of the trial:
Banker Selections: 141, Winning Lays 133 = Strike Rate 94.3%, Profit 94.30 points
Return on Investment 66.90%, Average Price of Losing Lay 5.00 (BFSP).
Normal Bonus Selections 124, Winning Lays 108 = S/R 87.1%, Profit 20.84 points,
Return on Investment 16.80%, Average Price of Losing Lays 6.11 (BFSP).
Clearly which ever way you go with this system you should make steady consistent profits but I like to wring out every last percentage of a system and my adaptation of this method would be to back only the Main and Banker Selections this would also be an ideal approach for fixed liability staking say 5 or 10% of the Bank with short losing runs, long winning runs and a slightly reduced BFSP odds on your losing lays as shown below.
Main/Banker Selections: 591, Winning Lays 544 = Strike Rate 92.08%,
Profits 310.74 points, ROI 52.57%, Average Price of Losing Lay 5.39
Conclusion
Whether you decide to back all the selections which when taking in all results from June 2007 to-date would give you an average profit of 9.75 points per month with around 21 selections average for a month, or the Main/Banker ones which produced just over 17 selections a month with an average of 9.14 points the system appears to be solid. Now there has been some debate in the past about the author quoting profits to ISP and not to BFSP and not deducting Betfair commission unfortunately he is not the only one who does this, although it was pain and it took many hours for me to convert the figures it still does not distract from the fact that BFM is a good system. Although it is hard to give 100% accurate figures I have calculated that there is around 11.1 % difference between BFSP and ISP, so when you add the 5% deduction for BF commission you end with deducting 16.1% from the profits shown at ISP. If it was a case that the ISP prices was necessary to keep the system in profit then I would have had serious doubts but as can be seen from previous quoted figures in this review which were to BFSP and commission deducted, they are very respectable.
I have seen on another site that they questioned about BFM betting on a Sunday and that the results for the system must have been bad so they did not include them, the answer lies in the fact that on Sundays there is limited information on each race on the RP website and this system uses the RP Basic membership, it is unwise to bet if you do not have all the info. For those who work during the day you can use a Bot to place the selections, if you do not you will have to check the Bookies odds just before the off to see whether the selection is a bet or not then lay with Betfair. So apart from having to be around near the time of a selections race or use a Bot the only other downside is subscribing to the Racing Post basic membership but there are a lot of systems using this so it just breaks down the cost if you add this one. The system the last time I looked a couple of days ago is available at 67 pounds which I think this is good value as the system seems to have sensible rules which should be relevant for quite a while, would I use BFM yes I fully intend to add this to a small but select portfolio of mine
Rating: 
Passed and Recommended!
Regards
Sgt Dave
Filed under Betting System Reviews, Passed and Recommended by on Apr 7th, 2010.